成果归属作者：

张彬

成果归属机构：

工程技术学院

作者：

Qiang, Liu ; Wan, Qi ; Tang, Aiping ; Zhang, Bin

单位：

Southwest Jiaotong Univ, Inst Smart City & Intelligent Transportat, Chengdu 611756, Peoples R China;Southwest Jiaotong Univ, Sch Civil Engn, Chengdu 611756, Peoples R China;Harbin Inst Technol, Sch Civil Engn, Harbin 150090, Peoples R China;China Univ Geosci Beijing, Sch Engn & Technol, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China

关键词：

RISK-ASSESSMENT; SUSCEPTIBILITY; AREA

摘要：

Given the hazard prediction of regional landslides, the conditional features feedback from the hazard definition and the independence assumptions adopted by the hazard calculation present a significant contradiction. Although the Copula-based and definition-based models provide the tool for quantitative hazard, it does not fully capture the conditional information in the hazard definition. This study highlights the governing relationships among landslide hazard components, and further introduces a calibrated model that incorporates landslide time as a variable, and space and magnitude as parameters. Finally, the Heilongjiang area was applied to test and compare the performance between the calibrated and classical models. Results show that the classical model may underestimate the landslide hazard. In detail, the maximum hazard generated by the calibrated model is near 1.00 with the increasing time, larger than that of the classical model, 0.64 for the scenario of V > 100 m(3), and 0.26 for the scenario of V > 500 m(3). Thus, the calibrated model not only considers the relationship among the landslide time, magnitude, and the space but can reach the upper boundary of the probability with the increasing time. This study provides an exploration to develop a more accurate technique for quantifying the regional landslide hazard.

基金：

National Natural Science Foundation of China [52388102, U23A20666, 52278368, 42507254]; Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province [2024NSFSC0098, 2025ZNSFSC0415]; Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF [GZB20240631]

语种：

英文

DOI：

10.1016/j.gr.2025.09.015

来源：

GONDWANA RESEARCH,2026():163-175.

出版日期：

2026-02

提交日期：

2025-11-15

引用参考：

Qiang, Liu; Wan, Qi; Tang, Aiping; Zhang, Bin. Governing relationships of landslide hazard components and the impact on regional landslide hazard predictions[J]. GONDWANA RESEARCH,2026():163-175.